The Chicago Fire are set to host Orlando City in their final regular season game at Soldier Field this season. The Fire have a playoff spot secured but a lot on the line, while Orlando, currently in seventh and just four points clear of the playoff line, have everything to play for.
The math for the Fire is complicated – we did the math in our newsletter on Monday (you can read that coverage by signing up for free now) – but this game could set the team's floor or ceiling at 4th place, and the final spot for homefield advantage.
For Orlando, it's simple: A playoff spot is likely – our model has them at a 69% being in by the final whistle on Decision Day – but as nice as those odds are, they still need to points to get in. The three they can get from a win over the Fire, combined with a Columbus loss to FC Dallas in Frisco would be enough to punch their ticket.
That's a remarkable turnaround for a team that had just seven points after their first 10 games and who were, at the World Cup break, on track to concede 100 goals over the course of the 34 game season – not just setting a new MLS record, obliterating the record of 78 set in 2024 by the San Jose Earthquakes (that record still looks set to fall this year, with Sporting Kansas City conceding 77 goals with three games remaining).
Key to the turnaround has been the play of Antoine Griezmann, who on Saturday became the fastest player in MLS history to make it to 20 goal contributions, with 13 goals and 7 assists in 15 games since coming over in the summer.
In many years, Griezmann, a high-profile World Cup winner, would have been the most high-profile player to join MLS in the summer window, but not in 2026: When Robert Lewandowski joined the Fire, not only was he the biggest signing of the window, he instantly became the second-biggest name in MLS after only Lionel Messi.
He has helped propel the Fire to previously unseen heights commercially: Fire jerseys have become a virtually unobtainable commodity (we are told that the team will have more available). And if just 4,494 show up at Soldier Field later today, the Fire will break their previous attendance record, set just last year.
On the pitch, though, the record has been mixed: After finding his footing in MLS, he scored six goals in short order, but after facing Inter Miami in September, has been on a goalless drought that is reaching career lengths: Lewandowski has played 570 minutes since the last time he found the back of the net, a longer stretch than at any time since he left Poland (and breaking the previous high of 562 minutes, set in his first year with Dortmund).
Still: Lewandowski knows how to find the back of the net. His last tally came the last time he faced a team from Florida that was largely put on the map by a global star from the world stage.
Now that he's facing another Florida team with a globally-known star, will he once again find that simple joy?
