The Chicago Fire are a hair's width from qualifying for the MLS Cup playoffs, despite missing a chance to clinch at Soldier Field earlier this week.
With a 3-1 loss to the Philadelphia Union on Wednesday, the Fire's playoff party was postponed at least three more days. The Fire are so close to securing their postseason berth they can taste it; now they travel to Foxboro to face Marko Mitrović's New England Revolution, a team that clinched their own playoff berth with a win this week.
Here's what the Fire have to do to clinch back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since 2008 and 2009.
Chicago Fire Win or Draw
Because of other results around the Eastern Conference, the Fire entered the second half against the Union needing only a draw to clinch playoffs. They were up 1-0 at that stage, but down a man due to Jack Elliott's red card, and inevitably slipped to a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Cavan Sullivan and the red-hot Union.
The loss delayed their celebration, but likely not for long. The Men in Red are still only a point away from becoming mathematically uncatchable by the chasing pack, so a tie in New England would settle the question with four games to spare.
Although any positive result would be sufficient, it won't come easily. When the two teams met just last month, Mitrović's side capitalized on two Fire errors and defended extremely well, eventually emerging 2-1 victors in a tight, tactical battle at Soldier Field; Saturday's encounter is likely to be no different, with the key difference being that Massachusetts in mid-October is likely to be far chillier than the Chicago lakefront was in early September.
While a draw would be enough, Gregg Berhalter's team must win this game; New England is a direct rival near the top of the East, so this is a real six-pointer for playoff seeding.
Vegas odds: 59.90%
Other Clinching Scenarios
Even if the Fire lose to New England, which is entirely possible, they still have the chance of clinching the playoffs this weekend: All they need is either of two conference rivals to drop points.
D.C. United
If D.C. United fail to defeat Antoine Griezmann's Orlando City, the Fire will secure their berth regardless of what happens at Gillette Stadium. This seems incredibly likely, with Vegas giving Orlando ~76% odds of avoiding defeat at home against an opponent several positions below them in the table.
The D.C. game kicks off at the same time as the Fire's, so they will likely wrap up around the same time, too, meaning that the Fire could board the plane home knowing they've clinched even with a loss.
Vegas odds: 76.49%
FC Cincinnati
There's one other way the Fire could qualify for the playoffs this weekend, but it will mean waiting a day: A loss or draw by FC Cincinnati in their Hell is Real derby against the Columbus Crew will also secure the Fire a postseason berth.
Kickoff is 4 p.m. Central on Sunday, and if the Fire haven't qualified for the playoffs by then, it may mark a rare time when Fire fans find themselves cheering for the Columbus Crew.
Vegas odds: 56.70%
Regardless of how they do it, clinching by Sunday would be the earliest in the season the Fire have clinched playoffs since 2003, doing so with four games to spare. Dave Sarachan's Men in Red reached MLS Cup that season, though they fell just short to 21-year-old Landon Donovan's San Jose Earthquakes.
Nonetheless, qualifying through another team's failures, whether D.C.'s or Cincinnati's, are not likely to be satisfying scenarios to the Fire at this stage. After failing to secure their playoff berth at home on Wednesday, something they remarkably haven't done since 2009, Berhalter's side will want to qualify on their own, without relying on outside help.
