The Fire conclude their two-game tour of NFL stadiums with turf playing surfaces on Easter Sunday, in their third afternoon performance in a row. They'll face a talented Atlanta squad with a perfect record at home (2W-0D-0L).

Atlanta United

Overview

2023 Results: 13W-12D-9L, 51 pts, 6th in the Eastern Conference, 66 GF, 53 GA (+13 GD)

Key Signings: Josh Cohen (GK), Dax McCarty (DM), Stian Gregersen (CB), Daniel Ríos (F) Bartos Slisz (CM)

Atlanta United became the first MLS team to have an active player on their roster win the World Cup when Thiago Almada lifted the trophy in Qatar in late 2022. When Atlanta signed Greek striker Giorgos Giakoumakis early in the 2023 season, many expected the Five Stripes to get off to a flying start, listing the team as a potential contender for the Supporters Shield given to the team with the best regular season record.

It didn’t really happen – they went 6W-7D-4L in the first half of the season, and even when results went their way, they didn’t always look convincing doing so – they beat the Fire in Atlanta last April off a Maren haile-Selassie own goal nine minutes into second-half stoppage time.

As is often the case with Atlanta President Garth Lagerwey’s teams, Atlanta reloaded in the summer (the primary transfer window in Europe), bringing in five players (including recalling Edwin Mosquera from loan). As a result, in the second half, even if their record wasn’t particularly better than the first half, they felt like a much stronger, surer team in the second half of the season.

Those changes included attacking reinforcement, bringing in two wingers from Europe: Xande Silva from Dijon to serve on the left, and Saba Lobjanidze on the right. Both have been successful, with Lobjanidze adding seven goal contributions (3G, 4A) in just nine appearances (467 minutes) last season.

With the attack more or less set, Lagerwey turned his attention to the defensive midfield in the offseason, bringing on Polish international Bartosz Slisz to start and former Fire player Dax McCarty to serve as a backup and veteran presence on the bench.

One thing to note: Both Silva and offseason acquisition Stian Gregresen, a Norwegian international playing at center back, arrived from Ligue 2 teams and have fit right in to first team duties in MLS, showing that France can be a source of MLS talent, even below the top flight.

Most commentators around the league have them as a lock to comfortably make the playoffs.

And yet: Despite having one of the most expensive squads in MLS, and an owner who does not shy away from an expensive transfer, they haven’t ever really felt like they’re greater than the sum of their parts in years.

It wouldn’t be surprising if they made it deep into a competition or a trophy (though it might be a bit of a surprise if they actually hoisted one), but it also wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they found themselves back in a position where they were fighting for – and ultimately failing out on – home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs in 2024.

Tactics and Starting XI

Gonzalo Pineda’s Atlanta United teams – this is his first head coaching job – have typically lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation that at the surface doesn’t really differ too much from the standard template.

To the extent Atlanta United have been successful – they’ve made the playoffs twice in Pineda’s three-year tenure (including the 2021, when he took over midway through the campaign) – the success has more about having the right people on the pitch rather than any chess master-like scheme leading to success.

Instead, it’s more like classic cooking: Use great ingredients and let them shine.

And right now, Pineda has some top-quality ingredients at his disposal, including Thiago Almada, who has quickly established himself as a top-quality creator and goal threat in this league, despite being just 22 years old, and Giorgos Giakoumakis, who quickly became an example of a prime-age Designated Player having success upon entering the league when he arrived last summer.

So the game plan is pretty simple: Get the ball to Almada, who is capable distributing, can take on defenders one-on-one and who is a goal threat in both open play and off set pieces. Almada’s 30 goal contributions (11G,19A) last season accounted for almost half of Atlanta’s total offense (66 goals).

One curious thing about Atlanta’s lineup: Many around the league felt that former USMNT goalkeeper (and Illinois native and onetime Fire prospect) Brad Guzan’s age had finally caught up with him, and he was no longer really serviceable as a starter in this league (particularly on a team like Atlanta with high ambitions), and so it was no surprise when Atlanta brought in 31-year-old Josh Cohen from Maccabi Haifa, presumably to take over the starting reigns.

And yet: To date, it’s been Guzan getting the start with Cohen serving as backup. So far, it’s mostly worked, and Guzan hasn’t really been responsible for either of Atlanta’s losses, but it is a surprise.

Chicago Fire

Is there anybody left?

The Fire have been without their probable starter at left back since Andrew Gutman went down with a non-contact injury just a couple of minutes into the Fire’s season opener in Philadelphia. Since then, they have relied primarily on Chase Gasper to fill that role, but last week Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas opted to start Jonathan Dean, nominally a right back.

Dean had a decent game defensively, but playing with his wrong foot to goal hurt his ability to fulfill the offensive responsibilities of the role.

Dean was subbed off in the 77’ in favor of Gasper, but about four minutes into his time on the pitch seemed to hurt his left hamstring on a clearance. At the midweek press conference, Klopas confirmed that Gasper will be out some time, while also hinting that Gasper’s return may not come this weekend.

That gives the Fire no natural left backs to face off against Atlanta, a team with a high-powered attacking quartet. Carlos Terán – one of the few defenders on Klopas’s bench – came on in relief of the injured Gasper but we’re unlikely to see him start out of his natural position at center back.

It wouldn’t be out of the question for Klopas to play Allan Arigoni on the right, allowing Dean to play on his natural side – Arigoni does have experience playing on the left from his time in Lugano – but on net it’s unlikely that Klopas would give up the possibility of Arigoni contributing offensively on the right side.

Klopas was dismissive of the possibility of returning a player like Kellyn Acosta to left back (a position where he started his MLS career with Dallas), meaning, for better or for worse, Jonathan Dean will likely get his second start playing opposite his preferred side.

Get Creative

The Fire’s sole goal last week came off when the Fire recovered a loose ball that was quickly played to Fabian Herbers, who started in the #10 central attacking midfield role normally occupied by Xherdan Shaqiri, who then quickly crossed it into Hugo Cuypers just a couple feet from the penalty spot.

That goal was the Fire’s lone shot made centrally inside the 18 yard box. The Fire had other shots from inside the box, but all were from wider areas and only one of them (Georgios Koutsias’s shot soon after he came on in the 65’) made it on target, with the remaining shots either missing or blocked before reaching the goal.

The Fire did have other shots from the central area of the pitch – but all were from distance. As a result, Cuyper’s goal (a 0.47 xG shot) counted for more than half of the team’s entire expected goals throughout 90 minutes (0.9 xG).

The Fire simply cannot expect to score many goals if they only get one shot on target from the most dangerous area of the pitch, and to get those opportunities, the team simply must have more creative playmaking in the final third. While Fabian Herbers was playing in his first start in the #10 role, the play hasn’t been much better when Shaqiri has been in the lineup.

They need to play the ball quicker, whoever is in the #10 role (and why haven’t we seen that person be Brian Gutiérrez?) needs to be more creative, and the team simply needs more. More chances, more opportunities, more quick play.

Hugo Cuypers has shown that he can convert good service in the box into goals. Now the team needs to figure out how to provide that service reliably.

How Will The Fire Line Up Against Atlanta?

With Chris Brady and Xherdan Shaqiri back from international duty, both should return to their spots in the starting XI against Atlanta.

Against Pineda’s likely 4-2-3-1 formation, Klopas will likely field the same – keeping the same template that has been the team’s default for over two seasons.

With Shaqiri reclaiming the central attacking midfield role, Fabian Herbers, whose play has continued to be one of the brightest spots of the Fire’s 2024 campaign, should return to the defensive midfield alongside Kellyn Acosta. During the midweek press conference, Herbers identified the defensive midfield as his preferred role for the Fire, allowing him to influence the play on both sides of the ball. That pushes Gastón Giménez back to the bench.

Hugo Cuypers, Brian Gutiérrez, and Maren Haile-Selassie should all keep their starting spots.

With the Fire simply out of left backs (unless Andrew Gutman makes an unlikely return on Sunday), the spot is likely Jonathan Dean’s, though repurposing a winger (Chris Mueller has yet to get his first start, and was set to come on for Herbers last week before Gasper was injured) isn’t out of the question, nor is flipping Arigoni and Dean.

At center back, both Tobias Salquist and Rafael Czichos have solidified their play from the shaky performances we saw earlier in the season, and both will likely get the nods again on Sunday.