The Fire return home to host a Houston Dynamo squad that bested them the last time they met at SeatGeek, though several key players from that match are out for the Dynamo that could change the tone and tenor of the game.

Houston Dynamo

Overview

2023 Results: 14W-9D-11L, 51 pts, 4th in the Western Conference, 51 GF, 38 GA (+13 GD)

Key Signings: Sebastian Ferreira (striker, returned from loan), Jan Gregus (CM)

When Ben Olsen was named the head coach for the Houston Dynamo after the 2022 season, there was an almost-audible groan from Dynamo fans. Olsen was a longtime D.C. United player that served as the team’s head coach from 2010-2020.

After a slow start, things started going well for D.C. under Olsen’s tenure  – he won the U.S. Open Cup with D.C. United in 2013 (though the team finished last place in the league table that year) and was named MLS Coach of the Year in 2014. After that, though, results tailed off, and the team only escaped winning the Wooden Spoon as worst team in the league in 2017 thanks to a tiebreaker, having one more win than the LA Galaxy as both were tied with 32 points.

Olsen came to represent the decline to mediocrity in what was the original standard bearer in MLS, and Houston fans assumed that it was a concession that their club, too, was content to be mediocre. The hire, at the time, felt unambitious and uncreative, and those are the results that fans expected on the pitch.

Well: Since Olsen left, D.C. won another spoon (in 2022), and still hasn’t made the playoffs since 2019, while in Houston?

Olsen did something unexpected in Houston: Unlike the sometimes-plodding and frequently uninspired brand of football that became the hallmark of his D.C. United teams, Olsen figured how to do something Paulo Nagamura couldn’t, and get Héctor Herrera fully engaged (to be fair – Hérrera joined the Dynamo midway through the season from Athlético Madrid, meaning he had basically no break from the summer of 2021 through the end of the Dynamo’s 2022 campaign).

The result was a team that played soccer that was both aesthetically pleasing and successful: The Dynamo propelled themselves back into the playoffs for the first time since 2017 (giving the Fire sole possession of the longest active playoff drought in the league), made it as far as the Western Conference finals and wont the U.S. Open Cup.

Tactics and Starting XI

One word that’s been used to describe Ben Olsen time and time again is “pragmatic.” In some hastily-written reevaluations of his time at D.C. United, the belief was that he was actually doing a halfway decent job with a badly-composed squad.

In 2023, that largely meant finding a way to keep the entirety of the Dynamo’s talented midfield corps to play together on the pitch, which meant playing out of a nominal 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 that allowed Hérrera to make plays from deep while Coca Carrasquilla played in a more advanced role feeding their striker, but the team has proved tactically flexible.

In 2024, with Hérrera injured (his return is expected in a few weeks) and with striker Sebastián Ferreira hurt in a CONCACAF Champions Cup match that happened just before the start of the regula reason, Olsen relied ons something that had more resemblance to a 4-2-3-1, though they’ve also played with a nominal three players in the back. Heck, they started the season playing a 3-5-1-1.

Ferreira looks like he’s 90 minutes fit, but just as that happened, it looks like Coco Carrasquilla may not be available: He was seen training on his own this week, suggesting he very well may not be able to play.  With forward Nelson Quiñones having had a season-ending injury, the Dynamo’s depth is being severely tested.

So far, they’ve passed the test, but Carrasquilla is more essential to what the Dynamo are trying to do on the pitch than Ferreira, and being down two strong, playmaking midfielders.

How will they cope? Possibly by playing out of a 4-2-3-1, with Ján Greguš and Artur playing in a double pivot, as they did against San José, having Sebastian Kowalczyk play on the right side in the spot assuming that Carrasquilla is unable to play, and having Aliyu start on the left.

That leaves Ferreira as the nominal striker, but realistically, Aliyu, Kowalczyk and Bassi are all attacking threats, and the duo of Greguš and Artur form one of the better double pivots in he league.

Behind them, Franco Escobar and Griffin Dorsey are formidable left and right wingbacks, respectively, capable of defending and joining in the attack, and Micael and Erik Sviatchenko will likely start at center back ahead of Steve Clark in net. Sviatchenko was listed as questionable a week ago but played 56 minutes before being subbed off and will likely be good to start against the Fire.

Chicago Fire

In case the scoreline didn’t make it obvious, the Fire had their worst outing of the season in their 3-0 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. They had been holding their own defensively through most of the first half but really had nothing in the final third, in a game where Brian Gutiérrez started in the central attacking midfield ahead of Xherdan Shaqiri, on the bench as he recovered from international duty.

Simply put, Gutiérrez did not look effective. This season is a massive opportunity for him to take the next step up in his career, but to do that he’s got to show that he can be a creative force playing from that position, even against top defenses, and it simply wasn’t his night.

The game had relatively few bright spots; one of them was the improved play of Gastón Giménez, who looked more comfortable joining the offense in his partnership with Acosta than we’ve seen from him in a while.

But overall, It simply never looked like the Fire had particular plans on how to create genuine chances in the final third, something that Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas noted in media availability midweek.

Something has to change. And that’s meant literally because….

One Solution to the Center Back Question

It was looking like Klopas was going to have an increasingly difficult conundrum of having somewhere between three to five center backs who had played decently-but-not-great. Rafael Czichos started off the season looking like a shadow of the player that arrived in Chicago in 2022, but his performance has since stabilized.

Tobias Salquist took a while to integrate into the team, earning his first minutes three weeks into the season and he’s hewed closely to being on one side or another of “ok.”  Mauricio Pineda has had two starts and looked, well, fine. Wyatt Omsberg has worked his way back to health and should probably be considered for minutes except for the options ahead of him being, well, fine.

Carlos Terán started the season injured, worked his way back to health and had looked OK. Not great, and not really better than Salquist, but hey, roll the dice, see if he works out better. And then in the 84’ against Atlanta he stomped on Edwin Mosquera’s calf, in a motion where Terán’s foot didn’t look like it got within about 10 yards of the ball he was going for and received a straight red card and a suspension as a result.

Well, that solves that problem. Omsberg and Pineda both deserve looks but it will likely be Czichos and Salquist getting the nods.

Migratory Herbers

Fabian Herbers, given the armband for the second start in a row, was once again one of the Fire’s stronger players last week. A week prior, he looked strong playing in the #10 role centrally; last week, he reverted to the wing – the position where he spent most of his time with the Fire.

The match was the first time this season that Herbers didn’t have a shot on net, but regardless, his play has all but certainly earned him another start – not bad for a guy that many assumed would be a bench option this season.

However: An old habit of Fabi’s has once again reared its head, and Herbers has received a yellow card in each of the previous three matches. I’ve long argued that is a sign of Fabi trying to give it too much – you sustain 110% effort for too long, and you will overcommit and get carded.

He needs to check that, because he’s just two cards away from a one-game suspension even though we’re less than 20% of the way through the season.

So: Where will Fabi play this game, since Shaqiri is presumably going to start, as is Gutiérrez?

The solution a couple games ago would have been to put Herbers back in the double pivot next to Kellyn Acosta. Except Giménez had one of the strongest performances for the Fire (alongside Herbers), and really, there’s not a case to remove either of them from the XI (nor is there really an argument for pulling Acosta).

So, what to do?

The Issue at Wingback

Jonathan Dean is not a player that will contribute offensively from the left hand side. He will leave everything on the pitch, he will fight and he has an uncanny ability to make defensive plays even out of nowhere, even if it seems like he’s been beaten at some stage of the play.

But he won’t contribute on the offense as a wingback, which is really necessary for the Fire’s current structure. As a result, with Dean in the lineup, the Fire have lacked width, and as a result, they’ve been easier to defend against because opposing teams just need to worry about the center and (Fire) right(/opposition left) side of the pitch.

So, here me out here: In his time in Lugano, Allan Arigoni has played at every spot on the backline, including on the left. Put him on the left. This is not intended to be a slight at Dean or his game, but that isn’t his position.

Then put Fabian Herbers on the right. Herbers has shown an increasing ability to handle defensive duties, and in some ways, the role at wingback is simpler and more structured than that of a winger. It allows him to use his speed and his playmaking abilities, while, possibly, keeping him in a more structured role that might keep him from his fourth yellow of the season.

Do I think this will actually happen?

No. Likely, either Giménez or Herbers will start on the bench. Doesn’t mean it’s not worth a shot.

How Will The Fire Line Up Against Houston?

Chris Brady will start in net. The center back pairing will likely be Czichos and Salquist, although there’s arguments to be made for and against.

Acosta is a lock in the double pivot, and will start next to either Giménez or Herbers. Here’s hoping that it’s Giménez so we can see Herbers at right wingback, pushing Airgoni to the mirror side.

Ahead of them, Xherdan Shaqiri will all but certainly retake his armband and starting position centrally, flanked by Brian Gutiérrez and Maren Haile-Selassie, all looking to feed Hugo Cuypers as the sole striker.