How the Chicago Fire Can Advance in Leagues Cup

The Chicago Fire are in a strong position to advance to the 2026 Leagues Cup quarterfinals heading into their final first round game. They face Cruz Azul at SeatGeek Stadium on Thursday night – and know exactly what they must do to qualify for the next round.

“We're not looking past this game, past these 90 minutes and potential penalty shootouts, because there's potentially nothing after this in Leagues Cup,” Head Coach Gregg Berhalter said Wednesday. “We have to prepare to play a strong game or else, come Friday morning, we're going to be preparing for MLS games from here on out. This is a big moment, a big game, and we have to be focused on playing every moment of the game.”

Here are all the scenarios that could face the Men in Red tonight.

Regulation Win: ADVANCE

This is the simplest scenario. A win in 90 minutes over Cruz Azul would likely hand the Fire the #1 overall spot in the MLS Leagues Cup table. The only way the Fire could upset la Máquina and still finish 2nd would be if Austin FC pulled off an even bigger upset over Club América; significantly, with a win, the Fire could not finish any lower than 2nd, regardless of what happens in the other games.

The consequences of finishing higher would also bring later knockout round benefits for the Fire. Finishing 1st would guarantee home-field advantage in a potential semifinal and final (unless they face Toluca prior to the final, which would be staged in Toluca, Mexico). However, due to Leagues Cup rules on hosting privileges, the quarterfinal would have to be a road or neutral game for the Fire.

A 1st-place finish would most likely set up a date with C.F. Monterrey – quite an appetizing and spicy reunion with Hugo Cuypers, who left the Fire for $7.5 million last month after a transfer request. Based on current probabilities, and assuming a one-goal Fire win, the most likely quarterfinal opponent is Rayados (~64%), followed by América (~29%) and Cruz Azul (~7%). Monterrey or Cruz Azul would "host" the game at a neutral U.S. venue, whereas América would host at Mexico City's Estadio Azteca.

Shootout Win: ADVANCE

If Thursday's game is tied after 90 minutes, the Fire will already know that they are through, regardless of what happens in the shootout. However, the kicks would be significant for seeding and quarterfinal placement.

With a shootout win, the Fire would finish on an impressive 8 points and could finish no lower than 2nd place. They could also still finish 1st as long as their result is better than that of Austin against América. Austin currently has one better goal difference than Chicago, so if Austin were to also win a hypothetical shootout against América, the Fire would finish 2nd.

A shootout win would almost certainly promise the Fire a trip to Toluca. The only way the Fire could win on penalties and not face Toluca would be if Austin also won their game on penalties; in that scenario, the Fire would face Cruz Azul.

Shootout Loss: ADVANCE

Should the Fire lose on penalties, they would still advance to the knockout rounds, and ironically, this is the only way to guarantee a home quarterfinal. Because of the various potential outcomes of América-Austin, this scenario would even guarantee an opponent – Club León.

If this were to happen, the Fire would finish in either 3rd or 4th place, but in either case, would face León at home. The difference between 3rd and 4th would only change the Fire's bracket placement and potential hosting rights for the semifinal or final.

Regulation Loss: ELIMINATED

If the Fire lose in 90 minutes, they will be eliminated from Leagues Cup. Simple as. Had LAFC lost to Querétaro on Wednesday, there would have been a pathway to losing to Cruz Azul and still qualifying, but that is no longer the case.

Should the Fire lose, LAFC would sneak into the quarterfinals. They can also qualify if Austin lose.