How the Chicago Fire Can Clinch a Playoff Spot Against Philadelphia

The Chicago Fire are within touching distance of clinching playoff qualification in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2008 and 2009.

After a remarkable 2-1 comeback win over New York City FC last Saturday, Gregg Berhalter's team is in a strong position to secure a postseason berth in Wednesday's meeting with the Philadelphia Union. There are a few ways to do that, and the Fire could already have qualified before the final whistle blows at Soldier Field.

Here are all the ways the Fire could clinch a playoff spot on Wednesday.

Chicago Fire Win

The most straightforward route to a playoff berth is to win against the Union. With three points, the Men in Red would move to 51 points and be out of reach for New York City FC, Toronto FC, and D.C. United. Although NYCFC could theoretically still reach 51 points, the Fire have the tiebreaker on them secured.

That route is straightforward in name only. The Union has unequivocally been the best team in MLS, without a loss since May. They have also won seven games in a row, with now-17-year-old starlet Cavan Sullivan getting better in every game. The runaway MLS Young Player of the Year favorite and newly-minted U.S. international has 13 goal contributions in his last 10 Union games, and also scored against Mexico in his second USMNT start.

Nonetheless, if the Fire can get the job done and halt the Union's momentum, their playoff status will be secured. It would also increase the odds that the Union will finish 6th in the East; on their current trajectory of winning games every week, it seems likely that they will finish higher than that, but if they leave Soldier Field without any points, it will become much more difficult to catch Charlotte in 5th or New England in 4th.

Calculated Probability: 38.41%

Chicago Fire Draw, New York City, Toronto, D.C. Draw/Lose

If the Fire draw Philadelphia, their postseason fate will, at least for this week, rest in the hands of the small chasing pack just below the playoff line. If all of New York City FC, Toronto FC, and D.C. United fail to win, the Fire will clinch a playoff spot with just a draw.

Three teams failing to win may seem like a lot, but it is in the Fire's favor that all three are facing difficult opponents. NYCFC have just a 25% chance of defeating Inter Miami, Toronto are only a slight favorite against Orlando City, and D.C. United have a 52% chance of dropping points against the visiting New York Red Bulls.

If any of those teams win their game, the Fire could still clinch with a draw, but would need some additional help elsewhere. Again, the easiest way to qualify is simply to get the job done yourself on home soil.

Calculated Probability: 5.86%

Chicago Fire Draw, NYCFC and Cincinnati Draw/Lose, Red Bulls Lose

The Fire could also clinch with a draw if the Red Bulls lose to D.C. United, Cincinnati fail to beat New England, and NYCFC fail to beat Miami. In this scenario, Toronto’s result would not matter.

Calculated Probability: 5.43%

Chicago Fire Draw, NYCFC, Toronto, Cincinnati Draw/Lose

Another route would be for NYCFC, Toronto, and Cincinnati to drop points. If that happens, the Fire would clinch with a draw against Philadelphia, regardless of the result between D.C. and New York.

Calculated Probability: 6.19%

NYCFC and D.C. Lose, Toronto Draw/Lose

There is a scenario where the Fire could qualify for the playoffs before their game is even over. If New York City and D.C. lose, and Toronto fail to beat Orlando, then the Fire's playoff spot will be clinched around second half kickoff at Soldier Field.

To be clear, this is quite an unlikely scenario. This is currently a 9.56% chance that all three outcomes will unfold, meaning the Fire will most likely need at least a result to clinch.

Calculated Probability: 9.56%

NYCFC and Cincinnati Lose, D.C. Draw, Toronto Draw/Lose

One final scenario would let the Fire clinch regardless of their own result. If NYCFC and Cincinnati both lose, D.C. draw against the Red Bulls, and Toronto fail to beat Orlando, Chicago would secure their playoff spot even with a defeat to Philadelphia.

All four other matches kick off at 6:40 Central Time, one hour before the Fire kick off at home against the Union. All four results will be known before the Fire's game is over.

Calculated Probability: 2.48%